Friday, 25 April 2014

A quick commentary about the industrial changes, how it may impact the economy and the CSM

I've been reading a lot about the upcoming changes to industry.  Some of these changes are good for everyone (updated UI, RAM damage, extra materials), some are clearly benefiting null sec over highsec (superior refining) and some are still unknown (how will slot-less POS work?).  4 more dev blogs are coming up.

Some people are panicking (this is par for the course). The anxieties are because people fear high sec industry will no longer be viable.  I'm waiting for more details to form an opinion.  It is certainly true that high-sec industry used to have a big edge over Null, and this was a problem.  Did CCP over-correct?  Maybe.

Nosy Gamer has pointed out that the CSM members are, instead of putting out the flames, are fanning them with ill advised commentary.  For example, Jester (whom I normally really enjoy reading), claimed that it made more sense that Null sec was more profitable than High sec because it was like the low level vs high level areas of an MMO.   This argument is silly.  In those type of WoW-like MMOs, high level areas are more dangerous and more profitable because there are bigger monsters - dragons are more dangerous (and more lucrative to kill) than goblins.  Eve doesn't have monsters - well there are rats, but who cares, it's the PLAYERS who are the real foes.

Meanwhile mynnna made an economical argument that Nosy poked some serious holes in.  Mynnna argued that the cargo requirements to ship all the goods manufactured in Null back to highsec would be onerous.  Nosy pointed out that this capacity exists as the reverse trade is already occurring. This point is very thought provoking.

Generally speaking, high sec is where things are built (at the moment) and null where things are destroyed. Stuff is built in high sec, shipped (at fairly low cost) to Jita, where it it purchased and shipped (at higher costs) to null, where it is used and destroyed.

Now if you have a significant null industry, why would you ship stuff to Jita only to ship it back to null? It makes no sense. A central market hub will no longer be so crucial. What will happen is the rise of semi-stable Null trading hubs - nothing like Jita of course, but perhaps as big as say, Hek.

The difference between these  new null-sec trading hubs and the highsec hubs we know and love will be stability (due to war) and access. Right now anyone can go to Jita, or Rens or whatever. However, the PL trade hub won't be accessible by SOLAR members (and vice versa). The only reason Jita will persist - and it will be a shadow of its former self - is as a central "trade regulator" - if DCII are 400 K in the SOLAR hub and 800 K in the PL hub, there will be a movement of goods, and having a central market hub will still facilitate this type of trade since a SOLAR member can't just travel to PL space to sell his wares.   Jita may also be a central market place for compressed ore, which will be shipped to nullsec for refining.

These changes won't happen overnight.  It will take many months before these new hubs emerge (if they do).  We still don't have all the information. But changes are definitely coming.

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